Risk Assessment

Course Description

Probabilistic risk assessment modeling. Defining failure types and hazards. Methods: FMEA, fault and event tree, Markov models and Petri nets. Human reliability assessment. Statistical base, data assessment, and extreme events. Uncertainty and sensitivity assessment (data, assumptions, model, quantification, and final results). Importance of uncertainty for the risk management. Methods exercises and applications. Risk assessment for the technological systems design and operation. Technological system maintenance, spare parts needs and economical evaluations based on risk assessment. Risk assessment of transient modes of operation. Environmental risk assessment for the life cycle operation. Fundamentals of risk management. Risk, safety and risk perception. Importance of risk perception for the risk assessment and risk management. Integrated risk management: multiple criteria, scenarios and total hazard.

General Competencies

Learning approach, methods and applications of the risk assessment. Understanding specifics of probabilistic approach and connections with conventional approach. Recognizing role of risk assessment within risk management. Accepting importance of integrated approach, risk perception, and goals within risk assessment and management. Looking into the experience from technical systems risk assessment and management.

Learning Outcomes

  1. summarize the parts of probability theory and mathematical statistics essential to understanding the risk estimation methods and risk analysis methods audit
  2. combine technological systems probabilistic risk assessment, modeling and simulation with risk management
  3. modify Markov models with Petri nets as well as specifics of probabilistic risk assessment with conventional approach to risk analysis
  4. rearrange fault tree and event tree methods for risk assessment
  5. analyze uncertainty and sensitivity assessment (data, assumptions, model, quantification, and final results) as well as importance of uncertainty for risk management
  6. appraise technological system maintenance based on risk assessment and prepare evaluation of spare parts needs based on the risk assessment
  7. appraise possibilities for integrated risk management, scenarios and total hazard, as well as multiple criteria risk assessment
  8. analyze risks in environment caused by technical system life cycle operation

Forms of Teaching

Lectures

Teaching the course is organized in two teaching cycles. The first cycle contains seven weeks, mid-term exam, and the second cycle contains six weeks of classes and a final exam. Classes are conducted through a total of 15 weeks with weekly load of 2 hours.

Consultations

weekly

E-learning

homework assignments

Grading Method

Continuous Assessment Exam
Type Threshold Percent of Grade Comment: Percent of Grade
Homeworks 0 % 10 % 0 % 10 %
Mid Term Exam: Written 0 % 30 % 0 %
Final Exam: Written 0 % 50 %
Final Exam: Oral 10 %
Exam: Written 0 % 80 %
Exam: Oral 10 %

Week by Week Schedule

  1. Introduction: probabilistic risk assessment modeling and simulation as a base for technology systems risk management.
  2. Assessment scope determination. Defining failure types and hazards. Selection of methods. Risk assessment methods review. Failure mode and effects analysis – FMEA.
  3. Risk assessment with fault tree and event tree methods with examples and illustrations.
  4. Markov models and Petri nets risk assessment. Specifics of probabilistic approach and connections with conventional approach.
  5. Human reliability assessment. Modelling of implicit common cause failures.
  6. Statistical base, data assessment, and treatment of extreme events with small probability and huge hazard.
  7. Uncertainty and sensitivity assessment (data, assumptions, model, quantification, and final results). Importance of uncertainty for the risk management.
  8. Exams
  9. Exams
  10. Selected methods exercises and applications. Risk assessment for the technological systems design and operation (i.e., power system, power plant).
  11. Technological system maintenance based on risk assessment. Spare parts needs determination based on the risk assessment.
  12. Economical evaluations based on risk assessment. Risk assessment of transient modes of operation.
  13. Environmental risk assessment for the life cycle operation.
  14. Fundamentals of risk management. Neutral safety and risk perception bias. Importance of risk perception to the internal and external risk management decisions.
  15. Integrated risk management: scenarios and total hazard. Multiple criteria risk assessment.

Study Programmes

Electrical Engineering Systems and Technologies -> Electrical Engineering and Information Technology (Profile)

Electrical Power Engineering -> Electrical Engineering and Information Technology (Profile)

Electronic and Computer Engineering -> Electrical Engineering and Information Technology (Profile)

Wireless Technologies -> Information and Communication Technology (Profile)

Software Engineering and Information Systems -> Computing (Profile)

Literature

Kumamoto, H.; Henly, E.J. (1996.), Probabilistic Risk Assessment and Management for Engineers and Scientists, IEEE Press Marketing
Modarres, M.; Kaminskiy, M.; Krivtsov, V. (1999.), Reliability Engineering and Risk Analysis: A Practical Guide, Marcel Dekker, New York
Wenyuan Li (2005.), Risk Assessment of Power Systems, Wiley

Lecturers in Charge