Learning approach, methods and applications of the risk assessment. Understanding specifics of probabilistic approach and connections with conventional approach. Recognizing role of risk assessment within risk management. Accepting importance of integrated approach, risk perception, and goals within risk assessment and management. Looking into the experience from technical systems risk assessment and management.
- summarize the parts of probability theory and mathematical statistics essential to understanding the risk estimation methods and risk analysis methods audit
- combine technological systems probabilistic risk assessment, modeling and simulation with risk management
- modify Markov models with Petri nets as well as specifics of probabilistic risk assessment with conventional approach to risk analysis
- rearrange fault tree and event tree methods for risk assessment
- analyze uncertainty and sensitivity assessment (data, assumptions, model, quantification, and final results) as well as importance of uncertainty for risk management
- appraise technological system maintenance based on risk assessment and prepare evaluation of spare parts needs based on the risk assessment
- appraise possibilities for integrated risk management, scenarios and total hazard, as well as multiple criteria risk assessment
- analyze risks in environment caused by technical system life cycle operation
Forms of Teaching
Teaching the course is organized in two teaching cycles. The first cycle contains seven weeks, mid-term exam, and the second cycle contains six weeks of classes and a final exam. Classes are conducted through a total of 15 weeks with weekly load of 2 hours.Consultations
|Type||Threshold||Percent of Grade||Threshold||Percent of Grade|
|Homeworks||0 %||10 %||0 %||10 %|
|Mid Term Exam: Written||0 %||30 %||0 %|
|Final Exam: Written||0 %||50 %|
|Final Exam: Oral||10 %|
|Exam: Written||0 %||80 %|
|Exam: Oral||10 %|
Week by Week Schedule
- Introduction: probabilistic risk assessment modeling and simulation as a base for technology systems risk management.
- Assessment scope determination. Defining failure types and hazards. Selection of methods. Risk assessment methods review. Failure mode and effects analysis – FMEA.
- Risk assessment with fault tree and event tree methods with examples and illustrations.
- Markov models and Petri nets risk assessment. Specifics of probabilistic approach and connections with conventional approach.
- Human reliability assessment. Modelling of implicit common cause failures.
- Statistical base, data assessment, and treatment of extreme events with small probability and huge hazard.
- Uncertainty and sensitivity assessment (data, assumptions, model, quantification, and final results). Importance of uncertainty for the risk management.
- Selected methods exercises and applications. Risk assessment for the technological systems design and operation (i.e., power system, power plant).
- Technological system maintenance based on risk assessment. Spare parts needs determination based on the risk assessment.
- Economical evaluations based on risk assessment. Risk assessment of transient modes of operation.
- Environmental risk assessment for the life cycle operation.
- Fundamentals of risk management. Neutral safety and risk perception bias. Importance of risk perception to the internal and external risk management decisions.
- Integrated risk management: scenarios and total hazard. Multiple criteria risk assessment.