Risk Assessment

Course Description

Probability modeling and risk analysis. Types of failures and consequences. Risk assessment methods: event tree, fault tree, Markov models. Exponential reliability law. Reliability of systems with dependent and independent components. System with backup, parallel and serial reliability model. Human reliability. Statistical background, data analysis and extreme events. Analysis of uncertainty and sensitivity of the input data and assumptions to the final results. Measures of importance, reduction and increase of risk and impact of uncertainty of results on risk management. Risk assessments in the planning and operation of technical systems. Maintenance of system equipment on a risk basis. Optimizing the design and operation of systems based on risk. Probabilistic analysis of transient security. Environmental impact analysis of the entire working cycle. Basics of risk management. Risk, safety and perception. The impact of risk perception on risk analysis and management. Integral risk management: multiple goals, scenarios and overall implications.

Learning Outcomes

  1. Explain the concepts of reliability and availability of technical components and systems
  2. Calculate reliability/availability of the system with serial and parallel reliability/availability model
  3. Analyze the risk of operation of complex systems, systems with backup and systems with dependent components
  4. Assess the impact of the time distribution of failures on the final level of risk/safety of the plant operation
  5. Analyze the availability of a system in which preventive and corrective maintenance measures are implemented
  6. Identify system deficiencies based on component importance analyzes
  7. Explain the sensitivity and uncertainty analyzes conducted as part of the risk management process

Forms of Teaching

Lectures

Lectures will provide a theoretical background to the students.

Exercises

These will be used to solve numerical examples to the students.

Grading Method

Continuous Assessment Exam
Type Threshold Percent of Grade Threshold Percent of Grade
Quizzes 0 % 5 % 0 % 5 %
Seminar/Project 0 % 25 % 0 % 25 %
Mid Term Exam: Written 0 % 30 % 0 %
Final Exam: Written 0 % 40 %
Exam: Written 0 % 70 %

Week by Week Schedule

  1. Reliability and risk as part of performace and life, Reliability and risk theory and concepts
  2. Failure models and mechanisms, Matematical foundation
  3. Information, sets, logic, data and distributions, Bayes theorem
  4. Reliability of replacable and ireplacable components, Developing and testing component reliability
  5. Physics of component reliability, System reliability methods
  6. Fault tree method, Reliability quantification and simulation
  7. Risk assessment methods, Event tree method
  8. Midterm exam
  9. Probabilistic safety assessment method, Complexitity of logical models
  10. Quantification techniques and limits, Importance measures and optimisation
  11. Expert judgement in risk and reliability assessment, Human reliability, Software reliability as part of system reliability, Uncertainty and sensitivity in risk and reliability assessment
  12. Consequence determination, Dose effect relations, Regulatory and safety application of dose limitation
  13. Power system components reliability, Power plants, transmission and distribution systems risk and reliability, Power system environmental risk impact assessment
  14. Risk and life cycle assessment, Risk dimmensions: local/global, immidiate/delayed, environmental/human, economy'sustainability, Energy risk assessment dimensions: person, organisation and society, Risk goals, Risk perception and regulation, Risk management dimensions: person, organisation and society
  15. Final exam

Study Programmes

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Literature

(.), Mikuličić, Vladimir; Šimić, Zdenko Modeli pouzdanosti, raspoloživosti i rizika u elektroenergetskom sustavu, 1. dio: Analitičke metode proračuna pouzdanosti i raspoloživosti, Zagreb: Kigen, 2008,
(.), Kumamoto, H.; Henly, E.J. (1996.), Probabilistic Risk Assessment and Management for Engineers and Scientists, IEEE Press Marketing,
(.), Wenyuan Li (2005.), Risk Assessment of Power Systems, Wiley,
(.), Modarres, M.; Kaminskiy, M.; Krivtsov, V. (1999.), Reliability Engineering and Risk Analysis: A Practical Guide, Marcel Dekker, New York,

For students

General

ID 222697
  Winter semester
5 ECTS
L1 English Level
L1 e-Learning
30 Lectures
0 Seminar
15 Exercises
0 Laboratory exercises
0 Project laboratory

Grading System

90 Excellent
75 Very Good
60 Good
50 Sufficient