Energy Policy Analysis and Modelling

Course Description

Energy is at the very centre of many of the current concerns over the global environment and the degradation of local, regional, and national environments. Energy plays a pervasive and critically important role in economic and social development. The identification and analysis of energy issues, and the development of energy policy options, are therefore important areas of study by governments, researchers, and the development community. In the aftermath of the first oil crisis, and countries everywhere struggled with the establishment of effective policies and institutions to deal with energy sector problems. First, the need became apparent for greater coordination between energy supply and demand options, and for the more effective use of demand management and conservation. Second, energy-macroeconomic links began to be explored more systematically. Third, the more disaggregate analysis of both supply and demand within the energy sector offered greater opportunities for interfuel substitution Because of the many interactions and non-market forces that shape and affect the energy sectors of every economy, decision-makers have realized that energy sector investment planning, pricing, and management should be carried out within an integrated national energy planning framework which helps to analyse a whole range of energy policy options over a long period of time. Modelling and simulation have long and well served the actors and various decision makers in the domain of energy policy. Various modelling approaches and models have been applied to address a variety of energy policy related issues. This course provides an overview of these modelling approaches and models and identifies their key challenges in the face of emerging issues. The identified energy policy modelling related issues include the characterization of energy systems as complex, dynamic system with numerous uncertainties, non-linearities, time lags, and intertwined feedback loops. Different approaches to modelling energy efficiency is presented. The whole energy system modelling framework is used to inform energy and climate change policy decisions. The approach taken can affect the results significantly, potentially affecting policy decisions. The course examines the implications of these different approaches and discusses best practice in order to inform energy efficiency policy, renewables and climate change concerns. In the context of energy transition, and using concrete examples, course explore how these tools, which bring into play applied mathematics and economics skills, have become an essential aid to prospective reflection on policies to fight climate change. By course students intend to understand the mechanisms underlying ambitious contemporary energy policies at work in selected countries using studies carried out. This should allow students to appraise the transitions underway and identify the obstacles and driving mechanisms involved in implementing them. In course Energy Policy Analysis and Modelling through selected works are discussed the major aspect of electricity economics, including pricing, demand forecasting, investment analysis, and system reliability. This course provides a clear and comprehensive overview of the diversity of problems in analysing energy markets and designing sound energy policies.

Learning Outcomes

  1. explain economic principles in energy supply and demand, energy reserves, economics of fossil and renewable resources and understand importance of energy supply for the economy and society
  2. evaluate energy, economic and environmental characteristics important in planning of: thermal power plants, hydro power plants (run-of-river, reservoir, pump-storage), wind, solar and nuclear power plants
  3. explain methods and models for
  4. explain methods for power system planning: Least-cost planning and Integrated planning of resources
  5. identify possibilities for demand forecasting (principles, forecasting techniques, load duration curve) and typical data requirements
  6. explain decision making process for energy system developments (stakeholders, multi-criteria analyses in decision making process)
  7. apply specific energy models in order to analyse various energy and climate scenarios and develop simple case study and run model (PLEXOS, WASP, ESST, MESSAGE)
  8. explain the relationships in international energy and climate scenarios
  9. identify policy and economic dimensions of the energy choices to meets societal goals - both global and domestic
  10. explain European Union planning mechanism for public policy in Energy sector

Forms of Teaching

Lectures

Course teaching is organized through two teaching cycles. The first cycle consists of 7 weeks of direct instruction and an intermediate exam. The second cycle of classes includes 6 weeks of direct classes and a final exam. classes are conducted over a total of 15 weeks with a weekly load of 2 hours

Seminars and workshops

Through the work on the seminar, students will describe the results of work during laboratory exercises with the PLEXOS model for modeling and planning of electricity production capacities.

Independent assignments

Homework with homework.

Laboratory

In order to get acquainted with different models for planning and analysis of energy policies and their impact on the environment through five three-hour laboratory exercises, students will be introduced to the basic characteristics of the PLEXOS program.

Other

Demonstration exercises Demonstrations of work and exercises in the PLEXOS software package.

Grading Method

Continuous Assessment Exam
Type Threshold Percent of Grade Threshold Percent of Grade
Laboratory Exercises 60 % 7 % 60 % 7 %
Class participation 50 % 6 % 0 % 0 %
Seminar/Project 70 % 10 % 0 % 0 %
Mid Term Exam: Written 50 % 30 % 0 %
Final Exam: Written 55 % 27 %
Final Exam: Oral 20 %
Exam: Written 50 % 73 %
Exam: Oral 20 %

Week by Week Schedule

  1. Introduction to energy systems, the importance of energy supply for the economy and society Introduction to policy analysy and policy modelling Energy Policy Analysis Scenario Planning: The Link Between Future and Strategy Concepts in Policy Analysis Energy data: Sources, uncertainties, visualization Energy Systems Modelling for Decision-Making
  2. Energy modelling and analysis Introduction to energy models Models and Simulation Classification of Energy Models Optimization Methods Modelling net-zero emissions energy policies for sustainable development Types of energy system modelling tools Bottom-up and top-down modelling tools Categorisation of energy modelling tools energy Modelling System (PLEXOS) as a sample structure.
  3. Current issues of European energy policy and economy Modelling tools for EU analysis The role of transmission and energy storage in European decarbonization towards 2050 Role of Distributed Energy Resources in the Energy Transition The Future of Renewable Support Mechanisms . - Renewable support mechanisms in EU Regulatory Menu for Integration of Renewables
  4. Energy system Analysis What is it needed for? How does it support policy makers? What is an energy system and how can it be represented? What are energy system models needed for? What is their role in supporting energy policy?
  5. The Policy Analysis Process Introduction to Energy Policy The Need for Simple Methods of Policy Analysis and Planning Establishing Evaluation Criteria Identifying Alternatives Evaluating Alternative Policies Scenario analyses Types of scenario analyses used in energy systems analysis (normative, explorative, predictive) Examples and outcomes of published scenario analyses.
  6. Globalna geopolitika energetike, presjek između međunarodne sigurnosti. politike i energetike Historical development of the production and use of energy The global competition for natural resources Resource depletion Energy and development, Life cycle analysis Energy poverty and equity issues
  7. Technologies & Fuels and Policy Cases Fuels Fossil fuels: Coal, Natural gas and oil RES A global renewable energy roadmap: Comparing energy systems models Policy instruments for low Carbon technologies Review of energy system flexibility measures to enable high levels of variable renewable electricity
  8. Midterm exam
  9. OModeling of Energy Demand, Supply and Price Designing an energy system optimization problem Structure of linear optimization energy system models Creating the algebraic formulation of a linear optimization energy system model from scratch.
  10. Energy Use and Environmental Impacts Energy and the environment Climate change and the energy system Climate policy and low-carbon energy technologies Climate change I: Basics, scale, uncertainty Climate change II: Insights from mod Energy policies and environmental protection, national security and technologies
  11. Energy planning and simulation of system operation and operating characteristics of thermal power plants The most important issues of power planning Energy planning program (creating an energy strategy)
  12. Nuclear Energy Nuclear Energy in Long-Term System Models: A Multi-Model Perspective Nuclear Implications for Policy and Planning
  13. Croatian energy strategy and policy NECP Low carbon strategy Hydrogen strategy EU i HR
  14. Power exchanges, CROPEX/Electricity market and trading and the example of HEP stores.
  15. Final exam

Study Programmes

University graduate
[FER3-EN] Electrical Power Engineering - profile
(3. semester)

Literature

Mohan Munasinghe, Peter Meier (1993.), Energy Policy Analysis and Modelling, Cambridge University Press
Farzaneh, Hooman (2019.), Energy Systems Modeling (Principles and Applications), Springer Singapore
F. Carl Knopf (2011.), Modelling, Analysis and Optimization of Process and Energy Systems, Wiley; 1 edition December 27, 2011, Wiley
Samuel Tesema Lakew (2015.), Renewable Energy System Modelling and Techno-Economic Analysis: Alternative Energy Solution for Developing Countries, LAP LAMBERT Academic Publishing
William T. Ziemba, S.L. Schwartz (1980.), Energy Policy Modeling: United States and Canadian Experiences, Springer
Thomas A. Adams II (2019.), Modeling and Simulation of Energy Systems, MDPI
George Giannakidis, Kenneth Karlsson, Maryse Labriet, B. Ó Gallachóir (2018.), Limiting Global Warming to Well Below 2 °C: Energy System Modelling and Policy Development, Springer
Vincent Kaminski (2005.), Energy Modelling (2nd edition), RiskBooks

For students

General

ID 222921
  Winter semester
5 ECTS
L3 English Level
L1 e-Learning
45 Lectures
0 Seminar
0 Exercises
15 Laboratory exercises
0 Project laboratory

Grading System

90 Excellent
75 Very Good
60 Good
50 Acceptable