Energy-Economy Models for Developing of Energy Systems

Course Description

Energy, economic and environmental characteristics important in planning of: thermal power plants (typical technologic and economic features, environmental impact), hydro power plants (statistics of hydrological conditions probability, construction costs of hydro power plants, parameter method of cost evaluation) and nuclear power plants. Economy of energy sources, technology evaluation methods. Long- term development of energy and power systems. Planning in power systems (short- term, long- term, peak load forecasting, environmental protection). Methods for power system planning: simulation and optimization models, methods and algorithms for determination of the optimal expansion plan of new generation capacities in power system. Least-cost planning and integrated planning of resources. Demand forecasting. Decision making process. Co-ordination of hydro and thermal generation. Planning in the conditions of uncertainty. Integrated modelling of electricity and emissions markets. Electricity market simulators.

General Competencies

The objective is to introduce various methods used for modelling energy economics and to provide the capabilities to apply the gained knowledge on simple problems. Forecasting of short and long-term adequacy of generation capacities. Optimization of power system expansion planning relating to energy, economic and environmental constraints – planning in accordance to principles of sustainable development. Methods and models for development planning of power systems (simulation and optimization models and system operation models). Financial analyses: strategic behaviour modelling, impact of regulated activities on market, forecasting of short and long term adequacy of generation capacities, optimization of trading strategies for given portfolio of generation and transmission capacities. Valuation of environmental constraints impact and security of supply requirements. Models and tools for simulation and planning in liberalized electricity market conditions. Decision making models.

Learning Outcomes

  1. explain economic principles in energy supply and demand, energy reserves, economics of fossil and renewable resources
  2. evaluate energy, economic and environmental characteristics important in planning of: thermal power plants, hydro power plants (run-of-river, reservoir, pump-storage) and nuclear power plants
  3. compare methods and models for power system planning (simulation and optimization models, system operation models)
  4. explain methods for power system planning: Least-cost planning and Integrated planning of resources
  5. identify possibilities for demand forecasting (principles, forecasting techniques, load duration curve) and typical data requirements
  6. explain decision making process for energy system developments (stakeholders, multi-criteria analyses in decision making process)
  7. analyze co-ordination of hydro and thermal generation (value of water, short-term and long-term utilization, models) and electricity production costs
  8. apply specific energy model and developing simple case study and run model (WASP, MESSAGE, PLEXOS)

Forms of Teaching

Lectures

Course lectures are organized through 2 study cycles. First cycle consists of 7 weeks of lectures and mid-term exam. Second cycle consists of 6 weeks of lectures and final exam. Lectures are held through total of 15 weeks with weekly load of 2 hours.

Exams

Examination is performed in two parts: in eighth week mid-term exam and in fifteenth week the final exam. Exams are written and consist of multiple choice questions, essay questions and exercises. Final exam is also oral.

Laboratory Work

During five 3-hour laboratory exercises students will be introduced to basic characteristics of PLEXOS programs in order to gain knowledge about different electrical energy production capacity planning models and their influence on the environment.

Experimental Exercises

Demonstration of work and the exercises in the program package PLEXOS.

Consultations

Consultation acording to the needs of students.

Seminars

Through seminary work students will describe their laboratory exercises results using PLEXOS modelling tool for electrical energy production capacity planning models.

Structural Exercises

Structural exercise models of 3-node and 5-node software package in PLEXOS.

Programming Exercises

Creating models of Croatian Power System in the software package PLEXOS.

Other Forms of Group and Self Study

Homework tasks.

Grading Method

     
Continuous Assessment Exam
Type Threshold Percent of Grade Threshold Percent of Grade
Laboratory Exercises 60 % 7 % 60 % 7 %
Class participation 50 % 6 % 0 % 0 %
Seminar/Project 70 % 10 % 0 % 0 %
Mid Term Exam: Written 50 % 30 % 0 %
Final Exam: Written 55 % 27 %
Final Exam: Oral 20 %
Exam: Written 50 % 73 %
Exam: Oral 20 %

Week by Week Schedule

  1. General terms, economic principles in energy supply and demand, energy reserves, energy supply systems and their development, sources of energy and their use, structure and organization of energy and electricity economics, physical and technical principles of electricity generating plants, impact of the energy sector on the environment Principles of environmental economics. Economics of depletable and renewable resources.
  2. Basics of system analysis and system theory; goals of energy planning, modelling, time series and regression analysis, input-output analysis, linear and dynamic optimization, system dynamics, cost-benefit-analysis; energy demand models, energy system models (“top-down”, “bottom-up”), energy economic models, planning tools for the electricity, gas and oil industry.
  3. Scope of Energy Policy Models. Energy System Models: Attempt to capture behaviour of an entire energy system (e.g., a state, nation, region or the globe). Macroeconomic trends drive the model but are exogenous. Energy Economy Models: Attempt to capture impact of energy system on the wider economy. Partial System Models: E.g. sectoral models, lifecycle tools, facility sitting tools, etc. Laboratory training in computer models for energy planning: Introduction to specific energy model and developing simple case study and program run for case study. Least cost planning model for electricity Capacity expansion analysis - WASP.
  4. Electricity production costs (types of costs, price of electricity). Energy, economic and environmental characteristics important in planning of: thermal power plants (typical technologic and economic features, environmental impact), hydro power plants (run-of-river, reservoir, pump-storage; statistics of hydrological conditions probability, construction costs of hydro power plants, parameter method of cost evaluation) and nuclear power plants.
  5. Sustainable development concept, economy of non-renewable and renewable energy sources, technology evaluation methods. Long- term development of energy and power systems. Planning in power systems (short- term, long- term, load duration curve, peak load forecasting, environmental protection and power system planning). Economy of power system planning. Laboratory training in computer models for energy planning: Introduction to specific energy model and developing simple case study and program run for case study. Model for Energy Supply Strategy Alternatives and their General Environmental Impacts – PLEXOS.
  6. Methods for power system planning: simulation and optimization models, system operation models. Algorithms for simulation of power system operation, methods and algorithms for determination of the optimal expansion plan of new generation capacities in power system. Least-cost planning and integrated planning of resources and demand side management.
  7. Operation of vertically integrated power systems. Models and examples of deregulated operation. New operation and planning policies. Generation scheduling, independent power producers, cogeneration, optimal dispatch based on offers and bids, unit commitment. Demand forecasting (principles, forecasting techniques, load duration curve). Forecasting of short and long-term adequacy of generation capacities. Typical Data Requirements.
  8. Exam
  9. Including environmental impact in planning and planning for sustainable development. Decision making process: participants, multi-criteria analyses in decision making process: integration of economic, social, health and environmental impacts. Modelling for optimization of power system expansion planning relating to energy, economic and environmental constraints – planning in accordance to principles of sustainable development. Laboratory training in computer models for energy planning: Introduction to specific energy model and developing simple case study and program run for case study. Simplified Approach for Estimating Impacts of Electricity Generation - SIMPACTS.
  10. Problems of aggregation in power systems. Energy and economy interaction. Co-ordination of hydro and thermal generation (value of water, short-term and long-term utilization, models).
  11. Financial analyses: strategic behaviour modelling, impact of regulated activities on market, forecasting of short and long term adequacy of generation capacities, optimization of trading strategies for given portfolio of generation and transmission capacities.
  12. Different models for energy and electricity market analysis. Analysis of interactions of electricity market with markets for other energy carriers. Electricity and energy buying and selling planning and trade in an open market. Investments in the energy system and technologies. The planning criteria and planning tools. Simulation models. Environmental and market regulations. Risk management and congestion management.
  13. Models and tools for simulation and planning in liberalized electricity market conditions. Decision making models. Long Term Planning in Restructured power Systems: Dynamic Modelling of Investments on New Power Generation under Uncertainty. Market power. Planning in the conditions of uncertainty. Integrated modelling of electricity and emissions markets, optimization of emissions constraints, emissions valuation Laboratory training in computer models for energy planning: Introduction to specific energy model and developing simple case study and program run for case study. Market simulator model for electricity market and Capacity expansion analysis into market conditions - PLEXOS.
  14. Brief introduction to various energy models. Electricity market simulators (wholesale, retail, short-term and long-term simulations, development planning). Laboratory training in computer model PLEXOS for energy planning. Presentations of specific energy model results of case study.
  15. Exam

Study Programmes

University graduate
Electrical Power Engineering (profile)
Specialization Course (3. semester)

Literature

Ferdinand E. Banks (2000.), Energy Economics: a Modern Introduction, Kluwer Academic Publishers
T.W. Berrie (1992.), Electricity Economics and Planning, IEE Power Series 6
A. Eydeland; K. Wolyniec (2003.), Energy and Power Risk Management: New Developments in Modeling, Pricing and Hedging, Wiley/Finance
D. Feretić, Ž. Tomšić, D. Škanata, N. Čavlina, D. Subašić (2000.), Elektrane i okoliš, Element, Zagreb
B. Murray (1999.), Electricity Markets. Investment Performance and Analysis, J. Wiley
(.), PLEXOS Tools Users Manual,

Laboratory exercises